The inflection point of the anhydrous aluminum fluoride industry's prosperity can be directly determined through advance judgment, and the industry allocation strategy of the investment portfolio can be directly determined. The analysis indicators are preset in advance, and then the changes in these indicators are tracked. The determination of analytical indicators is more comprehensive when forecasting the industry's prosperity.
1) A measure of the prosperity of the anhydrous aluminum fluoride industry;
2) Several periods of prosperity in the anhydrous aluminum fluoride industry;
3) The conduction process of the prosperity of the anhydrous aluminum fluoride industry;
4) The forecast of the prosperity of the industry of anhydrous aluminum fluoride: The upstream industries that are currently at the peak of the growth period are most likely to become the booming industries that are about to enter the growth period;
5) The interval of the boom transmission to the upstream;
6) The determinant of the turning point;
7) Judgment of the turning point of the economy: The prosperity of the upstream industry lasts longer than that of the downstream industry.
1) Turnaround period of Anhydrous Aluminum Fluoride Industry
With the growth of downstream demand, the operating rate of companies in the industry will increase significantly, but they have not yet reached the production scale required by economies of scale. At this time, the profitability of companies in the industry has not been significantly improved. The capital profit rate will increase due to the increase in operating rate, but it is still close to the market average rate of return.
2) Growth period of anhydrous aluminum fluoride industry
At this time, the downstream reaches the upper limit of operating rate due to the boom, which will drive demand to further increase. The operating rate of companies in the industry will approach the upper limit. Economies of scale will lead to cost reductions. Due to economic reasons, more production capacity has been added, which has caused demand from downstream to far exceed production capacity. Product prices have risen. The profitability of companies in the anhydrous aluminum fluoride industry has increased significantly. At this time, companies in the industry have begun to expand production and supply raw materials from upstream. Tensions began to appear, but the rate of cost increase was slower than the rate of price increase. The capital profit rate far exceeds the market average rate of return, but it will not continue to increase.
3) The growth of anhydrous aluminum fluoride slows down
Although the downstream demand is still strong, the supply of raw materials in the upstream of the anhydrous aluminum fluoride industry is insufficient, causing the production cost to rise faster than the price rise. The profit margin of funds began to decline.
4) The systolic period of anhydrous aluminum fluoride
The downstream demand is basically stable, but a large number of new production capacity in the anhydrous aluminum fluoride industry has been put into production. Competition in the industry has led to a rapid decline in product prices. At the same time, the industry has dragged the upstream into a period of slowing growth. The profit rate of funds declined rapidly.
5) Bottom period of anhydrous aluminum fluoride
The new capacity cannot be digested, the operating rate has dropped to the lowest level, and some companies have been forced to withdraw or be integrated. At the same time, the anhydrous aluminum fluoride industry has dragged the upstream into a contraction period. The capital profit rate will be below the market average rate of return, but it will not continue to fall.